An interesting piece in MediaMemo covering JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan’s forcasts for next year.
His summary is below
* Overall ad budgets continue to weaken. Since we reduced our estimates on September 4th, we have seen a further slowdown in the economy, particularly in the last two weeks of the third quarter. Weakness continued into October and spread from the US and UK throughout continental Europe and Asia. Additionally, dollar strength was greater than expected which will further depress growth rates. We are now basing estimates on a $1.25 exchange rate vs. our prior base of $1.40. Our updated model calls for total online global advertising growth of 25% in F’08 and 13% in F’09 vs. our prior estimates of 28% and 19% Y/Y growth respectively.
* Deterioration of display advertising is more pronounced than expected. Our channel checks are showing that sell-through is declining. Additionally, so far CPMs for premium inventory are flat to slightly down. Looking forward, we think CPMs will remain depressed and sell-through rates will worsen. As a result, we are lowering our F’08 and F’09 domestic display estimates to $7.95B (11 percent Y/Y growth) and $8.45B (6% growth) from $8.15B (14% Y/Y growth) and $9.43B (16 percent growth). We are now modeling F’08 global display ad growth of 14% Y/Y vs. our prior estimate of 16% growth.
* Search performance held up in 3Q but we expect ad budget cuts to bleed through. We continue to see performance-based advertising holding up better than banner advertising. Long tail advertisers continue to allocate additional dollars to search. However, keyword price inflation is moderating. Additionally, we think marketing spend pullback in some segments including travel, telecom, autos, and retail is worsening. As such, we are lowering our domestic F’08 and F’09 search growth estimates to 23.4% Y/Y and 17.3%, respectively, from 27.4% and 25.5% Y/Y growth. We are modeling F’08 global search ad growth of 34% vs. our prior estimate of 36% Y/Y growth.”